Unified RA and IRP Modeling Datasets 2021
This page lists unified modeling input datasets and scenarios used by Energy Division to model the electric and gas system, typically in support of the Resource Adequacy (RA) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) proceedings. The probabilistic system reliability and production cost model used by Energy Division is the SERVM model developed by Astrapé Consulting. In 2021, Energy Division updated inputs to support modeling for both the RA ELCC proposal expected to be published in January 2022 and the IRP Preferred System Plan Proposed Decision December 2021. The key inputs to the SERVM model in support of this work are provided on this page.
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Modeling Input Datasets – December 2021
Electricity Consumption Profiles
Hourly MW profiles for the four CAISO regions modeled, based on 1998-2017 weather
Annual energy and peak demand is based on the CEC’s 2020 IEPR demand forecast
Baseline Generator Unit List
Baseline Generator Unit List used in 2021 PSP modeling (updated 9-20-21)
Data Field Definitions All Units
Total Generator Unit List
Each file itemizes all units and installed capacity in MW modeled in SERVM for each study year. It includes baseline units consolidated with aggregated LSE IRP filings and procurement ordered in the Mid-Term-Reliability Decision (D.)21-06-035, plus RESOLVE-selected incremental units, if applicable.
Additionally, the following file identifies “remote generators.” These are already listed in the 20xx Total Generator Units files above, with the Region field identifying the physical unit location. The Remote Generators file identifies both the Source Region (the unit’s location) and the Remote Region (where the unit serves energy).
Hydro Generation Profiles
Hourly MW profiles for all modeled regions based on 1998-2017 hydro patterns [note: these are large files]
Renewables Generation Profiles
Hourly MW profiles for all units in the four CAISO regions modeled, based on 1998-2017 weather patterns [note: these are very large files]
“Renewables” in SERVM includes the following categories:
- AAEE – Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency
- BTMPV – Behind-The-Meter solar PV
- EV – Light and heavy-duty Electric Vehicles
- Hybrid – Single axis tracking solar PV paired with Hybrid Storage
- Solar_Fixed – Fixed-tilt solar PV
- Solar_1Axis – Single axis tracking solar PV
- Solar_2Axis – Dual axis tracking solar PV
- Solar_Thermal – Solar thermal
- TOU – Time-Of-Use rate impacts
- Wind - Wind
Demand-modifier resources annual energy impacts are based on the CEC’s 2020 IEPR demand forecast
Representation of the WECC-wide Transmission System by Regions
For modeling purposes, the Balancing Authority Areas (BAAs) of WECC are aggregated and grouped into 24 total Regions, 8 inside California and 16 external to California. The Regions are mapped to actual BAAs in this workbook: Master Region Lookup. This workbook also includes region mapping for the RESOLVE model used in the IRP proceeding.
The modeled transmission capability and hurdle rates (with and without carbon adders) between each region are tabulated in these workbooks:
Fuel and Carbon Prices
Monthly Fuel Cost, 2018 $ per MMBtu
GHG Emission Cost, 2018 $ per US ton (short ton)